LyondellBasell (NYSE: LYB) swings to a $758 million profit from a year-ago loss

Posted by Brian Himes on Oct 30th, 2026

What happened

LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (NYSE: LYB) reported third-quarter 2026 net income of $758 million, or $2.32 per diluted share, against a loss a year earlier.

By OptimistFi's calculation, that is a $1.65 billion swing from the $890 million net loss in the third quarter of 2025. That quarter carried $1.2 billion of pre-tax asset write-downs, so the comparison flatters the recovery. EBITDA was $1.42 billion, against a $480 million loss a year earlier.

Excluding identified items, net income was $828 million, or $2.54 per share. That is up 150.9% from $330 million a year earlier but down 40.9% from $1.40 billion in the second quarter of 2026.

Identified items totaled $70 million net of tax, or $0.22 per share. They included closure costs for a European propylene oxide joint venture.

Key numbers

Metric	Latest	Change	Source
Net income	$758 million	from -$890 million, +$1.65 billion	Calculated from SEC 8-K
Net income excluding identified items	$828 million	from $330 million, +150.9%	Calculated from SEC 8-K
Diluted earnings per share	$2.32	from -$2.77, +$5.09	Calculated from SEC 8-K
EBITDA	$1.42 billion	from -$480 million, +$1.90 billion	Calculated from SEC 8-K
EBITDA excluding identified items	$1.51 billion	from $835 million, +81.1%	Calculated from SEC 8-K
Cash from operating activities	$1.7 billion		SEC 8-K

Where earnings moved from the second quarter

The segments pulled in different directions. Olefins and Polyolefins Americas EBITDA fell to $641 million from $1.18 billion in the second quarter. The segment discussion blames lower margins as prices softened amid volatility tied to the Middle East conflict. Olefins results fell about $320 million and polyolefins about $265 million.

Intermediates and Derivatives went the other way. Its EBITDA rose to $720 million from $377 million, and oxyfuels added about $350 million. The company says the gain came equally from stronger gasoline crack spreads and from higher volumes after the Bayport PO TBA site restarted following a second-quarter outage.

In Olefins and Polyolefins Europe, Asia and International, EBITDA excluding identified items was $13 million, against $331 million in the second quarter. Polymer prices fell, and volumes were lower after the sale of certain European assets in May 2026. The second quarter also included a gain of about $50 million on excess European emission credits.

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Cash and the balance sheet

LyondellBasell generated $1.7 billion in cash from operating activities, helped by a release of working capital. Capital expenditures were $303 million and dividends were $224 million. The company did not repurchase shares.

It repaid a 500 million note as planned in September. Cash still rose by about $600 million during the quarter. It ended at $3.2 billion in cash and cash equivalents, with $7.7 billion of available liquidity.

Why it matters

OptimistFi has argued that LyondellBasell only works if 2025 proves to be a trough rather than a lasting impairment. Three results fit that view. The company posted a profit against a year-ago loss. Industry integrated polyethylene margins ended the quarter about 50% above 2025 levels. Cash covered capital spending, the dividend and a debt maturity.

The quarter-to-quarter picture is less clean. EBITDA excluding identified items was $1.51 billion, down 28.9% from $2.13 billion in the second quarter. The release ties the nine-month margin gains in Olefins and Polyolefins Americas to price increases from the Middle East conflict. The company also says a return to pre-conflict conditions is likely to be uneven and slower than anticipated.

In OptimistFi's reading, that makes it harder to tell underlying spread recovery from disruption-driven pricing. Part of the cash flow also came from the working-capital release rather than earnings.

What's next

For the fourth quarter, LyondellBasell expects operating rates of 85% for North American O&P assets, 60% for European O&P assets and 75% for Intermediates and Derivatives assets. That plan includes maintenance at a North American polypropylene asset. The company also expects normal seasonal demand and a seasonal release of working capital.

The company hosted its conference call at 11 a.m. EDT on Oct. 30, with a replay available until Nov. 30, 2026. The fourth-quarter report is the next test. Operating rates at or above those levels, with polymer pricing holding after September's improvement, would support the recovery case. Weaker pricing in Olefins and Polyolefins Americas would weaken it.