Algoma Steel (NASDAQ: ASTL) guides negative Adjusted EBITDA as power returns

Posted by George Bondi on Oct 2nd, 2026

What happened

Algoma Steel Group Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTL) said third-quarter steel shipments should be about 145,000 tons. The release was dated October 1, 2026, and covers the quarter ended September 30, 2026. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be negative C$10 million to negative C$20 million. That guidance includes an expected C$50 million to C$55 million capacity utilization adjustment.

The company said it installed a replacement turbine at Lake Superior Power, and the plant is now running at full power. All electrical equipment on EAF Unit Two has been tested. Algoma expects first heat in the coming days. Michael Moraca said the LSP turbine outage temporarily constrained EAF production and was expected to affect shipment volumes.

Key numbers

Metric	Latest	Source
Total steel shipments	approximately 145,000 tons	SEC 6-K press release
Adjusted EBITDA guidance	negative C$10 million to negative C$20 million	SEC 6-K press release
Capacity utilization adjustment included in guidance	C$50 million to C$55 million	SEC 6-K press release

Read more: Algoma Steel Group (ASTL) stock analysis and investment case

Why it matters

The filing gives investors a current view of Algoma's transformation. The company said third-quarter results reflect lower shipment volumes and a less favourable sales mix. It also said it used the outage period to speed up planned maintenance and advance commissioning work at EAF Unit Two. Algoma said that should help reduce future planned downtime.

Adjusted EBITDA is still expected to be negative, so the quarter still points to a loss on that measure. The expected C$50 million to C$55 million capacity utilization adjustment is the main support in that forecast. The recovery is not yet fully showing up in shipments.

That matters because the company is still in the restart phase. It is not yet showing the full benefit of the work it has done. The release links the quarter's pressure to the outage and the less favourable mix. The fourth-quarter ramp is the next test for volumes.

Browse: stock research on every company OptimistFi covers

What's next

Algoma said first heat at EAF Unit Two is expected in the coming days. Production and shipments from Unit Two are expected in the fourth quarter. Those are the next dated operating milestones in the release.

If first heat comes on schedule and Unit Two adds shipments in the fourth quarter, the update would support the restart. Another delay would leave the weak shipment guidance and negative Adjusted EBITDA in place. The next proof point is whether restored power turns into output.