Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz Q4 Earnings Call Highlights

Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ:KSPI) reported fourth quarter and full-year 2025 results that management described as strong despite what it characterized as a challenging operating environment. Executives highlighted continued consumer engagement in Kazakhstan, accelerating traction in new initiatives such as pay-by-palm, and improving momentum at Hepsiburada in Türkiye, while also resuming dividends on the back of cash generation.

Dividend proposal and headline performance

CEO and co-founder Mikhail Lomtadze said the company is “at the stage when we can continue investing into long-term growth” while also distributing dividends. Kaspi proposed a dividend of KZT 850 per ADS, subject to shareholder approval.

Management emphasized a distinction between reported and “underlying” performance, citing external headwinds including reduced smartphone sales due to supply shortages, tax changes, minimum reserve capital requirements, and a high interest rate environment. Lomtadze said net income grew 18% on an underlying basis for the year, while consolidated net profit grew around 10% when including those factors. For the fourth quarter, he said underlying net income growth reached 13%.

Kaspi also pointed to consumer engagement as a key internal metric, citing 77 monthly transactions per active consumer in Kazakhstan.

Brand strength and pay-by-palm rollout

Lomtadze framed Kaspi’s brand as a core competitive asset, saying it ranks as the “number one consumer brand” across multiple categories. He also highlighted the launch of “Kaspi Alaqan” (pay-by-palm), which he said was rolled out in under 90 days and has seen rapid adoption in Almaty.

According to management, in Almaty:

• Nearly 500,000 customers have registered for Kaspi Alaqan.
• Almost 6,000 merchants are accepting payments through the service.
• Pay-by-palm accounts for nearly 10% of transactions in stores where Alaqan has been enabled.

Lomtadze said the company is scaling the product “city by city” while replacing older merchant devices with new equipment designed to accept multiple payment types and support Alaqan.

Kazakhstan segment results: payments, marketplace, and fintech

Chief Communications Officer David Ferguson walked through segment-level trends in Kazakhstan, where management said scale is increasingly shaping growth rates in mature businesses.

Payments: Total payment volume (TPV) grew 14% year over year in the fourth quarter and 19% for full-year 2025, in line with prior guidance of around 20%. Transaction volumes rose 12% in Q4 and 14% for the year. Ferguson said take rate dilution continued as lower take-rate products such as Kaspi Pay and Kaspi B2B grew in mix, resulting in revenue growth of 7% in Q4 and 12% for the year. Net income grew 4% in Q4 and 13% for full-year 2025, with Q4 impacted in part by costs tied to the Alaqan launch and scaling.

Marketplace: Marketplace GMV grew 12% in Q4 and 19% for the full year, which management said included the negative impact from smartphones. Ferguson said smartphone GMV declined about 24% in Q4, consistent with the broader 2025 trend, and said there was “no improvement at all” in smartphone dynamics during the quarter. However, he added that smartphones returned to growth in January 2026 and that the company expects the issue to be primarily a 2025 phenomenon as comparisons improve.

Marketplace purchases increased 34% in Q4 and 35% for the full year. Management also highlighted ongoing take rate expansion, with e-commerce take rate reaching 13.1% in Q4 and 12.7% for full-year 2025, described as all-time highs driven by value-added services such as advertising and delivery.

E-commerce within marketplace: E-commerce GMV grew 9% in Q4 and 16% for the year, while purchases rose 70% in Q4 and 83% for full-year 2025. Ferguson said e-commerce was the portion most affected by the smartphone category. Advertising revenue grew 45% year over year in Q4 and 64% for full-year 2025, and the company referenced new ad products launched late last year as supporting medium-term growth. E-grocery GMV rose 53% for the year, and Ferguson said the number of consumers was “well north of 1 million,” approaching 1.4 million.

Ferguson also discussed merchant and consumer migration from “m-Commerce” to e-commerce, calling it a competitive advantage because of Kaspi’s relationships with offline merchants. He cited examples where m-commerce GMV declined in some categories while e-commerce grew sharply. While the shift supports overall take rate, Lomtadze cautioned that e-commerce is more operationally intensive than m-commerce due to delivery investment, which can pressure near-term profitability even as revenue rises.

Travel: Kaspi Travel GMV grew 6% in Q4 and 14% for the year, with management citing take rate expansion.

At the marketplace segment level, Ferguson reported revenue growth of 21% in Q4 and 30% for full-year 2025, while net income declined 7% in Q4 but rose 6% for the year. He attributed Q4 pressure to smartphone weakness and to delivery cost dynamics from higher volumes of lower-ticket, frequently purchased items. He said the company raised delivery prices from the start of 2026 to address that dilution.

Fintech: Total financing volume (TFV) grew 4% in Q4 and 13% for full-year 2025. Ferguson said growth was driven across products, with merchant and micro business financing remaining the main growth driver in lending. Yield was flat at 24% for the year and cost of risk was broadly unchanged at 2.2%. He also discussed an increase in the NPL ratio, attributing it to improved collections keeping more non-performing loans on the balance sheet, and said management expects it to remain around the 6% level through the remainder of 2026. Loan portfolio growth was 27% in Q4 and 31% for the year, while deposits grew 16% in Q4 and 18% for full-year 2025. Fintech revenue rose 19% in Q4 and 20% for the year, while net income grew 4% in Q4 and 9% for the year. Ferguson said higher interest rates, higher taxes, and increased reserve requirements weighed on results, and estimated fintech growth would have been around 18% in Q4 and for the year excluding those factors.

Türkiye: Hepsiburada momentum and investment approach

Management reiterated that its Türkiye focus is on increasing the frequency of purchases and the number of “engaged consumers,” rather than maximizing one-time monthly active users. Lomtadze said Hepsiburada orders grew 19% in Q4, while monthly active consumers increased 15% and engaged consumers grew 29%. The company also cited an improvement in next-day shipping coverage from 47% to 63%.

Ferguson said Hepsiburada GMV grew 13% in Q4 and 7% for the full year in “real” terms, while revenue rose 18% in Q4 and 13% for the year, supported by take rate improvement and delivery revenue growth. Executives said the strategy includes reinvesting to improve product and service quality while managing Türkiye “around EBITDA breakeven.”

On competition, Lomtadze said the company is “respectfully observing” the market but remains focused on product quality and consumer and merchant satisfaction rather than reacting directly to competitors.

On e-grocery and quick commerce in Türkiye, Lomtadze said the company does not intend to move into quick commerce at this stage, emphasizing that its focus is e-grocery aimed at larger household shopping rather than “small ticket fast commerce items.”

2026 guidance framework and key assumptions

Kaspi said 2026 guidance will now include Türkiye (Hepsiburada) alongside Kazakhstan. Ferguson said the company will guide on GMV, TPV, and TFV on a consolidated basis, and will guide profitability on adjusted EBITDA, citing the need for comparability across different interest rate environments, tax regimes, and regulatory frameworks. Management provided a 2025 adjusted EBITDA base of KZT 1.6 trillion and said it expects around 5% adjusted EBITDA growth.

Ferguson stressed that the 2026 outlook does not assume interest rates fall, noting that some investors may be building in rate declines. He also flagged ongoing pressures, including higher taxes in Kazakhstan beginning January 1, which he said would add around 200 basis points to the tax rate, and the impact of higher National Bank reserve requirements.

On dividends, Ferguson said the proposed KZT 850 per share level is expected to be sustainable through 2026, and noted it matched the dividend paid in the fourth quarter prior to the Hepsiburada acquisition. Lomtadze added that the previously discussed $300 million investment associated with obtaining a banking license opportunity in Türkiye had been considered in the decision to resume dividends; he said the company was progressing through regulatory approvals and would update investors in due course.

About Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ:KSPI)

Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz is a leading financial technology and e-commerce group headquartered in Almaty, Kazakhstan. The company has built one of the country’s largest digital ecosystems, offering a suite of integrated services that span consumer banking, payments, online marketplaces and merchant acquiring. Through its mobile and web platforms, Kaspi.kz aims to simplify everyday financial and shopping activities for individuals and businesses across Kazakhstan.

The company’s core offerings include digital banking solutions such as deposit accounts, digital wallets and money transfers, alongside consumer lending products that enable point-of-sale financing and “buy now, pay later” purchases.